Scenario analysis of emissions structure under climate change in China

Abstract This study calculated the CO 2 emissions due to fossil fuel consumption in China during 2000–2015 with consideration of the regional coal-, oil-, and gas-related variations. We used logarithmic mean Divisia index methods to establish the primary influencing factors of CO 2 emissions, and we extended the UK National Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios to forecast future CO 2 emissions related to fossil fuel use during 2020–2030. It was determined economic development is the main reason for increased CO 2 emissions, and that energy intensity and energy structure decreased CO 2 emissions. Finally, we considered six scenarios to predict the future development of coal, oil, and gas consumption in China. Six scenarios including Go with the Flow, Nature@work, Green and Pleasant Land, World Market, National Security and Local Stewardship, results show Green and Pleasant Land will induced coal and oil emission decrease and gas emission slightly increase. The results obtained based on analysis of CO 2 emissions and identification of regional influencing factors could provide useful information for decision makers regarding the allocation of fossil fuel use.