Prognostic factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia in inflammatory bowel disease: systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT Background and aims Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify all prognostic factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN, high-grade dysplasia or CRC) in patients with IBD. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted according to the MOOSE guidelines. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. Random-effects models were created separately for odds and hazard ratios, different study designs, and univariable or multivariable data. The evidence for all prognostic factors was categorized as ‘weak’, ‘moderate’, or ‘strong’, based on estimate of effect sizes, heterogeneity, and risk of bias. Results A total of 164 studies were included allowing pooled analysis of 31 potential prognostic factors. In the univariable analysis, the evidence for extensive disease was classified as strong while evidence for low-grade dysplasia, strictures, primary sclerosing cholangitis, post-inflammatory polyps, family history of CRC, and ulcerative colitis versus Crohn’s disease was considered moderate. Evidence for any dysplasia, colon segment resection, aneuploidy, male sex and age was classified as weak. In addition, histologic inflammation was identified as a risk factor in multivariable analysis (weak evidence). The evidence for the protective factors colonoscopic surveillance, 5-ASA, thiopurines, and smoking was moderate in univariable analysis. Multivariable analysis provided weak evidence for statin use. Conclusion In this systematic review and meta-analysis we identified 13 risk factors and 5 protective factors for aCRN in IBD patients, based on univariable and/or multivariable pooled analyses. These findings might lay the groundwork for an improved CRC risk stratification-based surveillance in IBD.