Micm-Simulation Based Travel Demand Forecasting System for Urban Transportation Planning

This study proposes a new urban-travel demand forecasting system based on a micro-simulation approach as an alternative method to four-step estimation methods. This system comprises, 1) PCATS which simulates an individual's daily activity-travel pattern, 2) DEBNetS which simulates vehicle trips on urban road network, 3) a household simulator which generates future household attributes, and 4) a system to evaluate inter-zonal travel times and costs by public transit based on public transport networks and time tables. The system was applied to replicate the travel demand in a 1990 travel survey data set. A comparison between the observed and the forecast indicated that the system is capable of producing reasonable forecasts.