Understanding the impact of network dynamics on mobile video user engagement

Mobile network operators have a significant interest in the performance of streaming video on their networks because network dynamics directly influence the Quality of Experience (QoE). However, unlike video service providers, network operators are not privy to the client- or server-side logs typically used to measure key video performance metrics, such as user engagement. To address this limitation, this paper presents the first large-scale study characterizing the impact of cellular network performance on mobile video user engagement from the perspective of a network operator. Our study on a month-long anonymized data set from a major cellular network makes two main contributions. First, we quantify the effect that 31 different network factors have on user behavior in mobile video. Our results provide network operators direct guidance on how to improve user engagement --- for example, improving mean signal-to-interference ratio by 1 dB reduces the likelihood of video abandonment by 2%. Second, we model the complex relationships between these factors and video abandonment, enabling operators to monitor mobile video user engagement in real-time. Our model can predict whether a user completely downloads a video with more than 87% accuracy by observing only the initial 10 seconds of video streaming sessions. Moreover, our model achieves significantly better accuracy than prior models that require client- or server-side logs, yet we only use standard radio network statistics and/or TCP/IP headers available to network operators.