Toward Global Estimation of Ground-Level NO₂ Pollution With Deep Learning and Remote Sensing

Air pollution is a central environmental problem in countries around the world. It contributes to climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases, and adversely impacts the health of billions of people. Despite its importance, detailed information about the spatial and temporal distribution of pollutants is complex to obtain. Ground-level monitoring stations are sparse, and approaches for modeling air pollution rely on extensive datasets which are unavailable for many locations. We introduce three techniques for the estimation of air pollution to overcome these limitations: 1) a baseline localized approach that mimics conventional land-use regression through gradient boosting; 2) an OpenStreetMap (OSM) approach with gradient boosting that is applicable beyond regions covered by detailed geographic datasets; and 3) a remote sensing-based deep learning method utilizing multiband imagery and trace-gas column density measurements from satellites. We focus on the estimation of nitrogen dioxide (NO ₂ ), a common anthropogenic air pollutant with adverse effects on the environment and human health. Our local baseline model achieves strong results with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.18 ± $0.16~\mu \text {g/m}^{3}$ NO ₂ . Substituting localized inputs with OSM leads to a degraded performance (MAE 7.22 ± 0.14) but enables NO ₂ estimation at a global scale. The proposed deep learning model on remote sensing data combines high accuracy (MAE 5.5 ± 0.14) with global coverage and heteroscedastic uncertainty quantification. Our results enable the estimation of surface-level NO ₂ pollution with high spatial resolution for any location on Earth. We illustrate this capability with an out-of-distribution test set on the US westcoast. Code ¹ and data ² are publicly available.