Computational implementation of a systems prioritization methodology for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: a preliminary example

Abstract A systems prioritization methodology (SPM) is under development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The SPM is based on a large numerical integration problem that must be repeatedly evaluated to determine compliance probabilities associated with different experimental programs and design modifications. Due to the complexity and computational cost of the underlying integration problem, the implementation of the SPM must be planned very carefully. This presentation describes a preliminary application of the SPM, designated SPM-l, performed to provide insights to facilitate the development and implementation of the methodology. Topics illustrated by SPM-1 include definition of probability spaces on which the SPM is based, use of Latin hypercube sampling and simple random sampling to integrate over different probability spaces, selection of mechanistic calculations to be performed, efficient use of the limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed, and assembly of many individual calculations into a complete analysis.