The prospective nuclear desalination market in Egypt

In view of the unavoidable decline in the per capita share of the more or less constant natural fresh water resources in Egypt, water desalination is expected to play an increasing role in mitigating a future deficit in potable water supply, particularly in remote desert areas. In the present study, an attempt was made to quantify the evolution of potable water supply, demand and deficit, as well as the portion to be covered by sea water desalination. The future potable water supply was determined as the difference between the projected total renewable fresh water supply and the projected combined demand of the other consuming sectors. To project the future demand of potable water, the history of past consumption was studied and correlated with the population and gross domestic product. Three scenarios were contemplated for economic development, reflecting low, medium and high economic growth rates. The difference between potable water supply and demand is the deficit that has to be compensated for. Part of the future deficit may be covered through various means other than sea water desalination. Therefore, it was assumed that sea water desalination will cover only 10% of the deficit in potable water supply. It is concluded that there will be a demand for an additional desalination capacity of a sufficiently large magnitude around the year 2012 and beyond that will support the installation of desalination facilities larger than 100,000 m{sup 3}/d. Desalination plants in this range coupled to nuclear power plants could be competitive with fossil fired plants. (author). 13 refs, 4 figs, 1 tab.