Impact of opportunistic diseases on chronic mortality in HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire.

Objective : To estimate incidence rates of opportunistic diseases (ODs) and mortality for patients with and without a history of OD among HIV-infected patients in Cote d'Ivoire. Methods : Using incidence density analysis, we estimated rates of ODs and chronic mortality by CD4 count in patients in a cotrimoxazole prophylaxis trial in Abidjan before the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. Chronic mortality was defined as death without a history of OD or death more than 30 days after an OD diagnosis. We used Poisson's regression to examine the effect of OD history on chronic mortality after adjusting for age, gender, and current CD4 count. Results : Two hundred and seventy patients (40% male, mean age 33 years, median baseline CD4 count 261 cells/µl) were followed up for a median of 9.5 months. Bacterial infections and tuberculosis were the most common severe ODs. Of 47 patients who died, 9 (19%) died within 30 days of an OD, 26 (55%) died more than 30 days after an OD, and 12 (26%) died with no OD history. The chronic mortality rate was 31.0/100 person-years for those with an OD history, and 11.1/100 person-years for those with no OD history (rate ratio (RR) 2.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.43 - 5.54). Multivariate analysis revealed that OD history remained an independent predictor of mortality (RR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.07 - 4.33) after adjusting for CD4 count, age and gender. Conclusions : Before the HAART era, a history of OD was associated with increased chronic HIV mortality in Cote d'Ivoire, even after adjusting for CD4 count. These results provide further evidence supporting OD prophylaxis in HIVinfected patients. South African Medical Journal Vol. 96(6) 2006: 526-529