Achieving Greater Food Security through South-South Trade? – A CGE Analysis of the Potential Impact of Food Trade Liberalisation

Over the last two decades, a remarkable albeit rarely noted change has occurred in global food markets: developed countries have lost their pre-eminence as the leading producers of food. Of the top 10 producers of food in value terms, six are now developing or transition economies. China alone – the largest food producer in the world – has now an annual agricultural production more than twice as much as the second largest (the United States). At the same time, consumption patterns have change and developing countries have increased their food imports. South-South food trade has increased from 5.1 percent of total food trade in 1990 to 28 percent in 2011. Food security is increasingly tied up with developments in the agricultural markets of other developing countries. Against this backdrop, this paper has three objectives: Firstly, it documents the nature of some of these changes in consumption and production patterns in the developing world (with a particular focus on China). Secondly, it reviews the persistence of relatively high tariff barriers in the context of South-South trade for agricultural goods. Finally, the paper looks at the scope for improving food security and increasing the dynamism of food production in the developing world by reducing tariffs on South-South food trade. Using a computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), we simulate the impact of removing tariffs on South-South food trade and find (within the confines of the model) relatively large positive gains.