GERD Failure Analysis and the Impacts on Downstream Countries

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is one of the major dams under construction on the Nile River. Currently, there is a lot of confusion about the impacts of GERD on downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt). One of the major impacts on downstream countries that has attracted a lot of debate is the impact of GERD failure. This paper aims to investigate the impacts of GERD failure in downstream regions using the International River Interface Cooperative (IRIC) two-dimensional analysis model. The study reveals that there could be a catastrophic effect on Sudan especially Roseires, Sennar, and Merowe dams in addition to Al Khartoum City. Also, the study shows that the Aswan High Dam (AHD) will be at risk.