Defense Cutbacks: Effects on California's Communities, Firms, and Workers-Executive Summary.

Abstract : Amid the decline in defense spending following the end of the Cold War, military base closures have prompted some of the most vocal public expressions of concern. Public expectations of the impact often verge on the apocalyptic, and economic forecasts of the local effects seem to bolster such fears. While many studies have been done on the closure and revitalization process, little new work has been done on the immediate economic impacts of base closures since the wave of closures after the Vietnam War. This study examined the experience of the communities surrounding three of the largest bases closed in California since 1988. The bases were selected due to their large presence in the local communities and because the communities were sufficiently isolated geographically that the effects could be expected to be both severe and measurable. The study used a case study approach to examine the impact of three base closures on nearby communities: George Air Force Base, located in San Bernardino County, which closed in December 1992; Fort Ord, located in Monterey County, which closed in September 1994; Castle Air Force Base, located in Merced County, which was slated for closure in 1995 and which 65 percent of its uniformed personnel had vacated by October 1994. To assess the impact of base closures on local communities, the study used nine measures-two centering on changes in population, four on changes in employment, and three on changes in the housing market. The study investigated how the closures affected the size of the total population in nearby communities and of their school enrollments.