[Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

Objective To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). Methods A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. Results A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), P<0.001); PE patients with one and more comorbidities (CCI≥1) were associated with 2.61-fold increased risk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower than that of patients with CCI=0 (46.7% vs 78.5%, P=0.003). Conclusions Malignant neoplasm, chronic lung disease and inappropriate anticoagulant therapy are independent risk factors of long-term mortality in patients with PE. The CCI can predict long-term mortality risk among patients with PE and the risk increases with the increase of comorbidites patients have. Key words: Pulmonary embolism; Mortality; Risk factors; Charlson comorbidity index