Characterizing MCID and assessing the role of preoperative PROMIS scores in predicting outcomes for reverse total shoulder arthroplasty at 2-year follow-up

Abstract Background The Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) has gained more ground as a reliable and efficient means of collecting patient outcomes in different shoulder surgeries. The purpose of this study is to determine if preoperative PROMIS scores are able to predict improvement in postoperative PROMIS scores and anchor this data to determine if a patient will achieve MCID after reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA). We hypothesize that preoperative PROMIS will significantly correlate, with anchor questions allowing clinicians to predict which patients are most likely to achieve MCID after RTSA. Methods Three PROMIS CAT forms (PROMIS Upper Extremity Physical Function CAT v2.0 (“PROMIS-UE”), PROMIS Pain Interference v1.1 (“PROMIS-PI”), and PROMIS Depression v1.0 (“PROMIS-D”)) were provided to all patients scheduled to undergo RTSA by board-certified shoulder and elbow surgeons at 1 institution. Demographic data was collected, including age, median household income, zip code, body mass index, sex, smoking status, and race. All patients enrolled in the study were contacted and asked the same 3 anchor questions pertaining to the 3 PROMIS CAT forms above. Results A total of 71 patients (52.1% male) were included in our cohort with an average age of 67.8 years (standard deviation, 8.4). Mean follow-up time point was 21.4 months (standard deviation, 9.9) after surgery. Neither preoperative PROMIS-UE, nor preoperative PROMIS-PI showed any significant predictive ability to achieve their respective domain MCIDs (AUC: 0.564 and 0.631, respectively). PROMIS-UE and PROMIS-PI improved to a significant degree at an average 21.4 months postoperatively from 29.2 ± 5.8 and 63.8 ± 4.8 to 39.8.9 ± 8.9 and 50.0 ± 9.7, respectively. Improvements in PRMOIS-D scores were insignificant at average 21.4 months (Baseline: 49.8 ± 8.0 vs. 44.5 ± 9.4 at final follow-up). Using anchor-based analysis to determine MCID, we found the following MCID values for PROMIS-UE, PROMIS-PI, and PROMIS-D: 7.0, -6.6, and -3.9, respectively. ROC analysis revealed MCID values for PROMIS-UE, PI, and D as 7.0, -6.6, and -3.9 respectively (AUC: 0.743, 0.805, 0.601). SCB values for PROMIS-UE, PI, and D were identified as 8.4, -12.1, and -4.0, respectively (AUC: 0.883, 0.932, 0.652). Conclusions PROMIS-UE and PROMIS-PI questionnaires can adequately assess the symptoms and outcomes of RTSA patients out to two years postoperatively. Preoperative baseline PROMIS-UE, PROMIS-PI, and PROMIS-D scores cannot adequately predict achievement of MCID in patients indicated for primary RTSA when using anchor-based methods at final follow-up, and should not be used to counsel patients on surgery or guide postoperative treatment. Level of Evidence Level II