Do Contextual Differences Between East and West (Still) Matter in Reunified Germany?: A Repeated Cross-Section Analysis on Attitudes Towards Immigration 1996–2006–2016

Research on attitudes and behaviour in intergroup relations often rests on the traditional social-psychological approaches of group threat theory and intergroup contact theory. In both theories, the presence of foreigners is the central point of departure, however, findings on the interplay of actual and perceived outgroup size with intergroup contact and perceived threat as well as anti-immigrant sentiments are far from being unequivocal. Especially for the German case earlier studies report mixed evidence, raising the presumption that relationships between measures of foreigner size and both concepts as well as their predictive power might vary significantly not only between West and East Germany, but also over time. In this study, we address these possible time specific and domestic differences using a moderated mediation framework with three time points of measurement in intervals of 10 years each. We use structural equation modelling to tackle our research questions empirically and utilize cross-sectional data from the German General Social Survey 1996, 2006 and 2016. Our findings undoubtedly reveal the relevance of the social psychological links discussed in explaining attitudes towards immigrants. Moreover, the performed analyses show that domestic German peculiarities matter not only regarding the micro-context, but especially regarding the differing socio-structural developments on the macro-level.