Evaluation of WRF-Predicted Near-Hub-Height Winds and Ramp Events over a Pacific Northwest Site with Complex Terrain

AbstractOne challenge with wind-power forecasts is the accurate prediction of rapid changes in wind speed (ramps). To evaluate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's ability to predict such events, model simulations, conducted over an area of complex terrain in May 2011, are used. The sensitivity of the model's performance to the choice among three planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes [Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ), University of Washington (UW), and Yonsei University (YSU)] is investigated. The simulated near-hub-height winds (62 m), vertical wind speed profiles, and ramps are evaluated against measurements obtained from tower-mounted anemometers, a Doppler sodar, and a radar wind profiler deployed during the Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study (CBWES). The predicted winds at near–hub height have nonnegligible biases in monthly mean under stable conditions. Under stable conditions, the simulation with the UW scheme better predicts upward ramps and the MYJ scheme is the most successful in simulati...