Slow breeding rates and low population connectivity indicate Australian palm cockatoos are in severe decline

Abstract Dispersal dynamics can determine whether animal populations recover or become extinct following decline or disturbance, especially for species with slow life-histories that cannot replenish quickly. Palm cockatoos (Probosciger aterrimus) have one of the slowest known reproductive rates of any parrot, and they face steep decline in at least one of three populations comprising the meta-population for the species in Australia. Consequently, we estimated demographic rates and population connectivity using data from published field studies, population genetics, and vocal dialects. We then used these parameters in a population viability analysis (PVA) to predict the trajectories of the three regional populations, together with the trajectory of the meta-population. We incorporated dispersal between populations using genetic and vocal data modified by landscape permeability, whereby dispersal is limited by a major topographical barrier and non-uniform habitat. Our PVA models suggest that, while dispersal between palm cockatoo populations can reduce local population decline, this is not enough to buffer steep decline in one population with very low breeding success. The small population size and likely decrease in the meta-population of greater than 50% over three generations (49 years) supports a change of conservation status for Australian palm cockatoos from ‘Vulnerable’ to ‘Endangered’ under IUCN criteria. Our research provides an important demonstration of how PVA can be used to assess the influence of complex meta-population scale processes on the population trajectory of species that are challenging to monitor.