Expiration-Triggered Sinus Arrhythmia Predicts Outcome in Survivors of Acute Myocardial Infarction

Abstract Background Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), a measure of cardiac vagal modulation, provides cardiac risk stratification information. RSA can be quantified from Holter recordings as the high-frequency component of heart rate variability or as the variability of RR intervals in individual respiratory cycles. However, as a risk predictor, RSA is neither exceptionally sensitive nor specific. Objectives This study aimed to improve RSA determination by quantifying the amount of sinus arrhythmia related to expiration (expiration-triggered sinus arrhythmia [ETA]) from short-term recordings of electrocardiogram and respiratory chest excursions, and investigated the predictive power of ETA in survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Methods Survivors of acute myocardial infarction (N = 941) underwent 30-min recordings of electrocardiogram and respiratory chest excursions. ETA was quantified as the RR interval change associated with expiration by phase-rectified signal averaging. Primary outcome was 5-year all-cause mortality. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression was used to investigate the association of ETA with mortality. Results ETA was a strong predictor of mortality, both in univariable and multivariable analysis. In a multivariable model including respiratory rate, left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes mellitus, and GRACE score, ETA ≤0.19 ms was associated with a hazard ratio of 3.41 (95% confidence interval: 1.10 to 5.89, p  Conclusions Expiration-triggered sinus arrhythmia (ETA) is a potent and independent post-infarction risk marker.