Reliability analysis of bleed air anti-icing system based on subset simulation method

Abstract Based on subset simulation method, this paper analyzes the temperature control failure of the aircraft bleed air system. Firstly, a deterministic simulation model of the aircraft bleed air system is created in AMESim software. Secondly, the relationship between parameters of the bleed air system and the outlet temperature is built using the quadratic response surface method. Functional reliability analysis model under the temperature failure of the bleed air system is established with the consideration of the bleed air system parameters dispersion. The calculation procedure of the bleed air system failure probability is derived based on subset simulation method. By introducing reasonable middle failure events, a small probability is transformed into a product of a series of large conditional probabilities so that the computation efficiency can be improved. Results show that the subset simulation method has higher degree of accuracy and less calculation in the functional reliability assessment of bleed air system. The reliability analysis results provide reference values for the bleed air system design.