Uncertainty sensitivity assessment on the optimization of the design and operation of complex energy systems: a comprehensive approach

In optimization of renewable energy system, uncertainties associated to technical and economical parameters are scarcely taken in account, which may lead to a weak confidence in results. In this paper, we propose and investigate a 4-steps methodology for uncertainty sensitivity assessment, with the objective to improve confidence in the assessment results and to support decision-making process following techno-economic optimization of the design and the operation of an autonomous power system. The methodology was applied to off- grid system including photovoltaic production, battery and hydrogen components (electrolyser, pressure storage and fuel cell). This energy system is modelled and optimized with Odyssey – a simulation software developed by CEA- LITEN since 2010. We focus on static parametrical uncertainties, linked to the energy system parameters.