Assessing global climate change mitigation scenarios from a power system perspective using a novel multi-model framework

There is a debate within the scientific and policy making community as to the suitability of global integrated assessment models (IAMs) for long-term planning exercises of the global power system. This study informs this debate and proposes a methodological framework for soft-linking of global IAMs with detailed global power system models. With the proposed open-source framework, the scenario results from IAMs can be fed into a power system model to assess given scenarios with enhanced spatial, technological, and temporal resolution. Results from these simulations can be redirected to the IAM through iterative bi-directional soft-linking. A proof of concept application of the proposed framework is presented by linking global IAM MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM with global power system model PLEXOS-World. Among others, the results highlight that the assumption of unconstrained electricity flows inside large regional copperplates causes an overestimation of variable renewables integration potential within MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM. We propose areas for informed improvements in MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM.