Model Sensitivity Evaluation for 3DVAR Data Assimilation Applied on WRF with a Nested Domain Configuration

An initial condition that closely represents the true atmospheric state can minimize errors that propagate into the future, and could theoretically lead to improvements in the forecast. This study aims to evaluate and understand the impacts of 3DVAR on the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a two nested domains setup. The domain configuration of the model covers China with an emphasis on Guangdong province, with a resolution of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km. Improvements in the forecasts for the Winter and Summer season of all the domains are systematically compared and are quantified in terms of 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, sea level pressure, and 2 m relative humidity. The results show that 3DVAR provides significant improvements in the winter case and surprisingly improvements were also found after the 48 h of the forecast. Evaluations of performance of 3DVAR in different domains and between two different seasons were done to further understand the reasons behind the discrepancies.