Estimativa de demanda por transporte aéreo para apoio ao Programa de Desenvolvimento da Aviação Regional no nordeste do Brasil

Both Literature and Government Agencies see aviation as an important driver for regional development and national integration. By having such a function, this sector is always considered as a matter of concern by the governments, which in turn pursue ways of fomenting the aero activity. Currently there is a Regional Aviation Development Program (PDAR) in process of being implemented. Such program foresees public investments in airport infrastructure and operational subsidies for Airlines in order reheat the sector and increase the number of locations served by regional aviation. This paper presents a model for estimating passenger demand potential through multiple linear regression, in order to cover the great majority of the federative units (states) of Pernambuco, Paraiba, Rio Grande do Norte, Ceara and Piaui. After applying the model, localities are suggested in order to optimize the resources of the PDAR, and it is concluded that it is very likely that there are regions that have higher demand potential than some regions that are already served by the airlines. Thus, it is assumed that by strategically directing investments to specific localities, companies will operate without subsidies, which in turn can be directed to airlines that are used to integrate the country, leading development to isolated localities, and thus efficiently contributing to reduce the Brazilian social inequality.