STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF STILL WATER LOAD EFFECTS ON HULL GIRDER

The real loading conditions of a ship in operation are indeterminate, and these induce hull girder still water load effects stochastic in nature. The method of prediction of computer-based stochastic modelling is presented and a statistical analysis is performed with SWBM data from about 2000 random loading conditions of oil tankers, bulk carriers, ro/ro vessels and containerships. The results show that the change of SWBM is close to the normal distribution, and it has a more obvious variation than hull section modulus or yielding limit of steel. It is necessary to estimate and predict the variation in modern design or reliability analysis of ship structures.