Modelo de localización de centros de acopio para la gestión del riesgo hidrometeorológico asociado a movimientos en masa en Antioquia

Natural disasters around the world have increased in last decades, this has generated the need to create contingency plans by governments to reduce the associated risks. These plans include the facility location with the aim to attend emergencies. At the theoretical level, the associated problem is known as Facility Location, this has been studied with the use of methodologies like Linear Programming, Metaheuristics, and Agent Based Modeling (ABM) Simulations integrated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS). In Colombia, hydrometeorological disasters, especially mass movements, are the principal cause of most of the deaths due to natural disasters. For this reason, the lack of sectorial plans that mitigates the impact of this kind of disasters is associated with the increase of victims and affected families in Colombia. (DNP y Banco Mundial, 2012). In this project was studied the case of Emergency Facility Location in Antioquia, Colombia. The main objective was to determine the potential locations for Facilities that will distribute humanitarian aid to the affected population by mass movements. For this reason, it was intended to maximize the served population while minimizing the number of assigned facilities. Therefore, for the location of the Facilities, was performed the interaction of a metaheuristics and an Agent Based Model Simulation in the software Netlogo. The goal of the metaheuristics was to determine the potential locations for Facilities with the use of an Iterated Local Search (ILS) methodology. First, his methodology established an initial solution, that guaranteed a wide coverage of the affected population. Secondly, the metaheuristics carried out the Iteration process, in which was analyzed the towns that were attended by each Facilities, this with the aim of maximizing the coverage of the affected population. Then, the Perturbation process was carried out, this process depended of an exploration percentage and of a defined number of disturbances. The Perturbation process had the aim of reallocate the Facilities established in the initial solution, this in order to find another local maximums in the Objective Function. Finally, all the selected solutions by the metaheuristics were evaluated in the simulation model for a medium period of time. The simulation model was based on the information provided by a Geographical Information System (topographic and mass movements maps, provided by Geological Colombian Service). The simulation model 2 recreated the creation of mass movements and evaluated the impact on towns according to the interaction of the agents in each of the scenarios. Then, in order to find the best solution, 27 scenarios were established by the combination of the following parameters: number of Facilities (5, 10 and 15), Exploration Percentage (30%, 50% and 75%), number of Iterations (10, 25 and 50) and Disturbances (3, 5 and 10). Each of these scenarios was executed twice, and through a series of statistical analyzes and tests (ANOVA and LSD) it was possible to determine the best solution in terms of the parameters mentioned above, it is represented on Table 1 and the Figure 1 (the yellow towns are those that were assigned as a Facilities). Once the best solution was determined, it was evaluated on the simulation environment for a period of 30 years. From the results obtained, a descriptive analysis of the data was carried out. It was observed that the with the proposed locations for the Facilities the 70% of the affected population will be attended. The above results indicates that the solution found was good in terms of achieving the objectives proposed in the project, it was not intended to provide full coverage, the idea was to guarantee at least a high percentage of coverage with the least amount of Facilities. Consequently, the social and economic impact of the construction of the Facilities was evaluated. It was established that the cost of the project would be approximately the 15% of the annual national budget for infrastructure that reduce the consequences of natural disasters in the Colombia. In conclusion, with this project was possible to establish a methodology that allocates Facilities for humanitarian aid distribution in a region of Colombia prone to mass movements. This methodology can be used for future works that cover the problem of facility location or it can also be complemented from different types of engineering problems such as the implementation of an inventory model or a routing problem.