Modeling harmful algal blooms in a changing climate

Abstract This review assesses harmful algal bloom (HAB) modeling in the context of climate change, examining modeling methodologies that are currently being used, approaches for representing climate processes, and time scales of HAB model projections. Statistical models are most commonly used for near-term HAB forecasting and resource management, but statistical models are not well suited for longer-term projections as forcing conditions diverge from past observations. Process-based models are more complex, difficult to parameterize, and require extensive calibration, but can mechanistically project HAB response under changing forcing conditions. Nevertheless, process-based models remain prone to failure if key processes emerge with climate change that were not identified in model development based on historical observations. We review recent studies on modeling HABs and their response to climate change, and the various statistical and process-based approaches used to link global climate model projections and potential HAB response. We also make several recommendations for how the field can move forward: 1) use process-based models to explicitly represent key physical and biological factors in HAB development, including evaluating HAB response to climate change in the context of the broader ecosystem; 2) quantify and convey model uncertainty using ensemble approaches and scenario planning; 3) use robust approaches to downscale global climate model results to the coastal regions that are most impacted by HABs; and 4) evaluate HAB models with long-term observations, which are critical for assessing long-term trends associated with climate change and far too limited in extent.