Scientific forecast use and factors of influence in water-constrained contexts: The case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica

Abstract Unexpected changes in the amount and timing of seasonal precipitation and temperature provide significant challenges to stakeholders in water-constrained areas of the world. These changes are particularly problematic for decisions that face economic and organizational constraints from those changes. The use of climate forecasts informed by scientific observations and statistical analyses that assume system dynamism may improve decision making and outcomes, however many of these stakeholders rely on traditional and/or folkloric strategies based on observations from the environment. Here we survey 87 stakeholders representing groups such as national agencies, farmers, and water managers in the semi-arid region of Guanacaste, Costa Rica on (1) their perceptions of freshwater security, (2) the role of forecast type (weekly, seasonal, and yearly) plays in their decision making, and (3) the factors that most influence the use of forecasts in decision making. Stakeholders report having enough freshwater to meet their current needs, however they are less certain about the future. Stakeholders are generally using forecasts but that use is not uniform – the most vulnerable to shocks are those that tend to trust traditional and/or folkloric methods the most, and are the least likely to use longer-term forecasts in their decision making. Policies for enhancing engagement between the potential users and producers of forecasts may increase use of climate forecasts among the most vulnerable stakeholders.