Simulation of the change of regional ecosystem services value based on CA-Markov

During the last few years, the value of ecosystem services, the possibilities and rationalities of evaluating these services have attracted interests of many ecologists and economists. However, the dynamic change of ecosystem services is less studied. In this paper, the dynamic simulation method (i.e., CA-Markov) is used to simulate the change of ecosystem services value in research area. The main objective of this study is to give comprehensive and reasonable assessment of the ecosystem services value change in the research area which would provide scientific basis for environment, ecosystem construction and strategic decisions. Based on the remote sensing dada of year 1992 and 2003, the landscape information of research area is obtained, and the transfer matrix among various landscapes is calculated during the period, then the data of landscape of research area in year 2015 is predicted using the model of CA-Markov. Then the change of ecosystem services value is calculated based on the value coefficient of various landscapes. The research demonstrates that the CA-Markov is a good tool for simulating the change of ecosystem services value. The studied result can provide scientific basis for ecosystem construction and strategic decisions.