Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy

Opinion-based surveys, or quantitative surveys, are potentially very powerful tools for conjunctural analysis in view of their rapid availability and nature. This paper addresses the usefulness of these surveys for monitoring the Spanish economy. To do this it analyses the two most important opinion-based surveys, namely the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey and the NTC-Research Purchasing Managers’ Indices, and their relationship to the Quarterly National Accounts macroeconomic data and to the Spanish economy's key conjunctural indicators. The results show that opinion-based surveys are generally useful tools for the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy, although they should be used with caution. Their usefulness is apparent in all the areas analysed: as indicators of economic developments, as pointers to changes in the trend of the economy and as tools for predicting the economic situation.