Cumulative burden of lipid profiles predict future incidence of ischaemic stroke and residual risk.

Objectives Incident ischaemic stroke (IS) risk may increase not only with lipids concentration but also with longer duration of exposure. This study aimed to investigate the impact of cumulative burden of lipid profiles on risk of incident IS. Methods A total of 43 836 participants were enrolled who participated in four surveys during 2006–2013. Individual cumulative lipid burden was calculated as number of years (2006–2013) multiplied by the levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), non-HDL-C and triglyceride (TG), respectively. The primary outcome was defined as the incident IS during 2012–2017. Results During 4.67 years (±0.70 years) follow-up on average, we identified 1023 (2.33%) incident IS. Compared with respective reference groups, the HRs (95% CIs) of the upper tertile in cumulative TG burden, cumulative LDL-C burden, cumulative TC burden and cumulative non-HDL-C burden were 1.26 mmol/L (1.02–1.55 mmol/L), 1.47 mmol/L (1.25–1.73 mmol/L), 1.33 mmol/L (1.12–1.57 mmol/L) and 1.51 mmol/L (1.28–1.80 mmol/L) for incidence of IS, respectively. However, this association was not significant in cumulative HDL-C burden and IS (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.79 to 1.52), after adjustment for confounding variables. Among 16 600 participants with low cumulative LDL-C burden, HRs (95% CI) for TC, TG, non-HDL-C and HDL-C with IS were 1.63 mmol/L (1.03–2.57 mmol/L), 1.65 mmol/L (1.19–2.31 mmol/L), 1.57 mmol/L (1.06–2.32 mmol/L) and 0.98 mmol/L (0.56–1.72 mmol/L), respectively. Conclusions We observed the correlation between cumulative burden of lipid profiles, except for cumulative burden of HDL-C, with the risk of incident IS. Cumulative burden of TC, TG and non-HDL-C may still predict IS in patients with low cumulative LDL-C burden. Trial registration number ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489.