Coronavirus Outburst Prediction in India using SEIRD, Logistic Regression and ARIMA Model

The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic is a major global health threat. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 situation report as on June 13, 2020, a total of 7,553,182 confirmed cases and 423,349 deaths have been reported across the world. Total confirmed cases in India as on 30th March’20 is 1071 of which 942 are active COVID-19 cases. There have been 29 death cases. Methods: We had used the mathematical model which monitors the five compartments namely, Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths, collectively expressed as SEIRD to derive the epidemic curve on India and top two most affected states (Maharashtra and Delhi). We also used ARIMA and Logistic Regression model on India data set and two states to p confirmed cases and calculated R-Squared value. Results: As per the model, the growth rate is 4.25, India is likely to reach a peak by August, showing a gradual decrease by end of October or Mid November. Conclusion: Our SEIRD model was good in foreseeing the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the upcoming days, we additionally reproduced the spread of disease in India for next 100 days by utilizing SEIRD model and anticipating the quantity of affirmed cases for next 14 days through ARIMA and Logistic Regression.