Decomposition of Economic Growth in the Russian Federation Through 2024

In 2018, the growth rate of GDP in Russia (2.3 percent) represents a record high of per annum economic growth rate since 2012. This year-end result is notably above the estimates offered by a majority of international financial organizations (the IMF, World Bank, the OECD), as well as by Russian banking analysts and experts. The volume of GDP in nominal terms surged above RUB 100 trillion, to RUB 103,626.6 billion (or approximately USD 1,657 billion when recalculated at the annual average RUB-to-USD rate). Growth was also displayed by most of the basic indicators: thus, the industrial production index in 2018 gained 2.9 percent, freight turnover – 2.9 percent, retail trade turnover – 2.6 percent. Special note should be made of the movement pattern of fixed investment: according to preliminary estimates released by Rosstat, its annual growth index amounted to 4.3 percent. Considering the fact that, in 2017, the amount of fixed investment in constant prices increased by 4.8 percent, it can be said that over the period 2017–2018, the investment sphere indeed experienced intense growth; however, the main contribution to that growth was made either by budget-funded investments (the completion of building construction projects in preparation for the World Cup; the construction of the bridge to the Crimea; the Sabetta Airport and Seaport; and infrastructure in the city of Moscow), or investments by state-owned companies (Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline; Yamal LNG; etc.)