Integrating geospatial information into fire risk assessment

Fire risk assessment should take into account the most relevant components associated to fire occurrence. To estimate when and where the fire will produce undesired effects, we need to model both (a) fire ignition and propagation potential and (b) fire vulnerability. Following these ideas, a comprehensive fire risk assessment system is proposed in this paper,whichmakesextensiveuseofgeographicinformationtechnologiestoofferaspatiallyexplicitevaluationoffirerisk conditions. The paper first describes the conceptual model, then the methods to generate the different input variables, the approachestomergethosevariablesintosyntheticriskindicesandfinallythevalidationoftheoutputs.Themodelhasbeen applied at a national level for the whole Spanish Iberian territory at 1-km 2 spatial resolution. Fire danger included human factors, lightning probability, fuel moisture content of both dead and live fuels and propagation potential. Fire vulnerability was assessed by analysing values-at-risk and landscape resilience. Each input variable included a particular accuracy assessment, whereas the synthetic indices were validated using the most recent fire statistics available. Significant relations (P,0.001) with fire occurrence were found for the main synthetic danger indices, particularly for those associated to fuel moisture content conditions.