New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland (discussion paper)

Polish coastal zone is thought to be of the most exposed to sea level rise in Europe. With climate change expected to raise mean sea levels between 26 and 200 cm by the end of the century, and storms increasing in severity, accurate estimates of those phenomena are needed. Recent advances in quality and availability of spatial data in Poland made in possible to revisit previous estimates. Up-to-date detailed information on land use, population and buildings were used to calculate inundation risk at a broad range of scenarios. Inclusion, though imperfect, of flood defences from a highresolution digital elevation model contributes to a further improvement of estimates. The results revealed that even by using a static “bathtub fill” approach the amount of land, population or assets at risk has been significantly revised down. Sea level rise or storm surges are unlikely to reach intensity required to cause significant damage to the economy or endanger the population. The exposure of different kinds of assets and sectors of the economy varies to a large extent, though the structural breakdown of potential losses is remarkably stable between scenarios.