COVID-19: A Systematic Analysis of the Evidences

Background: The novel coronavirus SARS- CoV-2, a virus that succeeded in making its transition from animals to humans on the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan city, China in December 2019 has resulted in unpresented pandemic. The disease caused by this virus, the COVID-19, is spreading strikingly fast around the world, and new disease epicenters have formed in Italy, Spain, Iran and USA. Methods: Data related to COVID-19 such as number of cases, number of deaths, key time events and Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ index) were extracted from ECDC, WHO and published literatures. The resulting data were aggregated at the regional and country level and key epidemiological measures were estimated and spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 was mapped. Findings: The distribution of COVID-19 was unpresented, in December, the disease was only in China, and by March it conquers the world with report from 196 countries/territories. By 28 March, highest cases of COVID-19 was reported in European region (n = 323, 900+), followed by the Americas (n = 121, 500+). The incidence ranged from 1431 in Italy to as low as 0.07 per 1,000,000 people in Sudan. The daily cumulative index (DCI) of COVID-19 was greatest in USA (1, 539.5 per day), followed by Italy (1, 491.3 per day), Spain (1, 123.8 per day), and China (923.4 per day). Within the last two weeks of March, the growth factor of daily new cases was larger than one for all regions signaling an exponential growth in number of cases . From 31 December 2019 to 28 March 2020, COVID-19 has affected almost 592, 000 people and caused nearly 27, 000 deaths, of which approximately 76.24% of cases and 87.8% of deaths are from USA, China, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran and France. The case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 varied in different countries/territories with an average CFR of about 4.6%. The CFR in worst hit country like Italy is as high as 10.56%. The CFR due to COVID-19 appears to be high even in countries with high Healthcare Access and Quality Index (HAQ index). Interpretation: This disease knows no boundaries and spreads strikingly fast. Evidences indicate that the number of cases and deaths could grow exponentially for the coming weeks if not months. The CFR is high even for countries having high HAQ Index as countries having the finest health such as USA and Italy are struggling to contain the pandemic. On contrary, evidence from China indicates that quarantine, lockdowns and travel restrictions helped China to contain the pandemic in few months’ time, thus countries having low HAQ Index should well prepared to limit the movement of its citizens. Funding Statement: There is no funding available for this study. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.