Potentials of Sub-Saharan Africa in the Global Market for International Tourism

Abstract This paper examines the future prospects of Sub-Saharan African region in the international market for tourism. This was achieved by analyzing past trends of international tourism arrivals and receipts in the region, and projecting these trends to the year 2010 using an amalgamation of four different time-series projection models after being evaluated by the MAPE. Results are given as confidence limits in three different scenarios. They show that arrivals of international tourists to Sub-Saharan Africa would increase from 17.9 millions in 2000 (end of observed period) to 28.9 million and 44.9 million tourists by the year 2010. The figures for receipts would go from $7.0b in 2000 to $11.0b and $15.3b by the year 2010. Receipts per capita (i.e., per tourist) would however decline at an annual rate of between −0.48% and −0.91% during the projection period. Socioeconomic impacts of these findings are given, and their implications for international marketing strategies and government public policies i...