Bone strain index in the prediction of vertebral fragility refracture.

Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) can provide quantitative (bone mineral density, BMD) and qualitative (trabecular bone score, TBS) indexes of bone status, able to predict fragility fractures in most osteoporotic patients. A new qualitative index of bone strength, based on finite element analysis and named bone strain index (BSI), has been recently developed from lumbar DXA scan. We present the preliminary results about the BSI ability to predict a refracture in patients with fragility fractures. A total of 143 consecutive fractured patients with primary osteoporosis (121 females) performed a spine x-ray examination for the calculation of spine deformity index (SDI) and a DXA densitometry for BMD, TBS, and BSI at basal time and in the follow-up. A refracture was considered as a one-unit increase in SDI. For each unit increase of the investigated indexes, the hazard ratio of refracture, 95% confidence interval, p value, and proportionality test p value were for BSI 1.201, 0.982-1.468, 0.074, and 0.218; for lumbar BMD 0.231, 0.028-1.877, 0.170, and 0.305; and for TBS 0.034, 0.001-2.579, 0.126, and 0.518, respectively. BSI was the index predictive of refracture nearest to statistical significance. If confirmed, it may be used for a better risk assessment of osteoporotic patients.