COVID-19 Modelling: the Effects of Social Distancing
2020
The purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it
difficult to become well informed about the repercussions of a
lockdown strategy to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark
discussion and thought. Here we use simple stochastic simulations to
evaluate different approaches taken to tackle the crisis, along with
the efficiency they will hold and the number of casualties they
may incur. It is clear that the less strict the social distancing the
more time it will take for life to return to normal, and the more
lives will be at risk. This is shown through simulations formed by
an open sourced code, which allows evaluation of the outcomes from
different intervention scenarios or conditions.
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