A systematic approach to assess the environmental impact of emerging technologies: A case study for the GHG footprint of CIGS solar photovoltaic laminate

Estimating the environmental impact of emerging technologies at different stages of developmentis uncertain but necessary to guide investment, research, and development. Here, we propose asystematic procedure to assess the future impacts of emerging technologies. In the technologydevelopment stage (technology readiness level < 9), the recommended experience mechanismsto take into account are (a) process changes, (b) size scaling effects, and (c) process synergies.These developments can be based on previous experience with similar technologies or quantifiedthrough regression or engineering dimension calculations. In the industrial development phase,(d) industrial learning, based on experience curves or roadmaps, and (e) external developmentsshould be included. External developments, such as changes in the electricity mix can be includedwith information from integrated assessment models. We show the applicability of our approachwith the greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint evaluation for the production of copper indium gallium(di)selenide (CIGS) photovoltaic laminate. We found that the GHG footprint per kilowatt peak ofproduced CIGS laminate is expected to decrease by 83% going from pilot to mature industrial scaleproduction with the largest decrease being due to expected process changes. The feasibility ofapplying our approach in practice would greatly benefit from the development of a database con-taining information on size scaling and experience rates for a wide variety of materials, products and technologies.