Predictive Middle Palaeolithic climatic conditions from Eastern Iberia: a methodological approach based on charcoal analysis and modelling

Ecological and climate modelling is increasingly common in archaeological science as it is a useful tool to analyse human behaviour and ecological variables that influenced the conformation of landscapes. Predictive vegetation models, mainly based on palynological data, provide meaningful information about the theoretical distribution of plant formations in the past by creating different hypothetical scenarios. However, factors linked to variability in pollen productivity according to taxa and to the regional scale offered by this proxy in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have led some authors to propose the use of macrobotanical data in order to detect a higher number of ecological nuances on a local scale. In this paper, we present the results of a study aimed at characterising the theoretical distribution of simulated Middle Palaeolithic biogeographic and climatic values in the local area of the Upper Serpis Valley, Eastern Iberia. Our predictive model is based on the anthracological data from two local sites, Abric del Pastor (MIS 4) and El Salt (MIS 3), and the climatic data from a total of 33 current weather stations located in the study area and adjacent distances. The data suggest that the Serpis Valley was a dynamic geographic area where there may have been different biogeographical and climatic conditions, not perceptible only through charcoal analysis. These nuances may represent the presence of several biotopes in the surroundings of these two sites, where plant taxa with different temperature and humidity requirements could have grown.