Prediction of energy demand from China’s transportation sector: an empirical analysis from the perspective of the energy revolution

The study re-defined the divisions of energy consumption in China transportation. By using the long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP), the analysis model for energy demand from China's transportation sector is established. Five scenarios applicable to 2030 are set, involving a reference scenario, structural optimisation, technological advance, management improvement, and energy-use reform. The results show that the energy consumed by the transportation is limited to about 7 × 108 tons by 2030. Meanwhile, powerful polices and measures must be taken to guarantee that the inflection point of energy consumption appears in about 2045 with an energy consumption of about 8 × 108 tons. Structural optimisation is a key measure necessary to decrease total energy consumption before 2040, while technological advances will become a key approach in promoting the energy consumption revolution in the transportation after 2030. Strengthening urban spatial design and management can effectively reduce energy consumption.