Does ethnic identity influence migrants' settlement intentions? Evidence from three cities in Gansu Province, Northwest China

Abstract The debate concerning the determinants of rural-urban migration in China has thus far paid little attention to migrants with different ethnic backgrounds. The present article investigates the determinants of settlement intentions using survey data for three cities in Northwest China. Under four strategies: Settling in the city (as the baseline); Returning home; Moving to other cities, and Undecided, we analyse migrants' intentions through a multi-nominal logit approach, in conjunction with in-depth interviews and participant observations. The results demonstrate a range of determinants that include human capital, migration characteristics, employment, network, and local factors. Findings indicate in particular that types of contract and job training strongly influence migrant settlement in all models. The implication of these findings is that migrants will have to learn practical skills if they plan to settle down. It may be attractive for local authorities to invest in vocational schools and to regulate the labour market and contracts if they are willing to accommodate these migrants. As expected, ethnic identity and cultural characteristics of the cities also play important roles in determining migrants' decisions to settle. Worth to notice that minority migrants tend to stay in cities where there is higher cultural homogeneity, thus lower demand for integration. They are less likely to resort to migration for a better livelihood compared to the Han majority. We advocate that the creation of more equal and inclusive socio-cultural contexts may promote minority migrants' mobility, thereby improving their livelihoods through migration.