PHENIPS : A comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation

Abstract We developed the model PHENIPS for spatial and temporal simulation of the seasonal development of Ips typographus at the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria. The model is based on a digital elevation model used for interpolation of temperature and solar radiation to calculate the microclimatic conditions (bark temperature) for the beetles’ development. Additionally, the beetles’ phenology at Kalkalpen National Park was monitored along with air and bark temperature measurements. The onset of host tree infestation in spring was estimated using a lower threshold of 16.5 °C for flight activity and a mean thermal sum of 140 degree-days (dd) from beginning of April 1st onward. Rate of brood development was calculated from accumulated degree-days of hourly temperature data using upper and lower temperature thresholds of 38.9 and 8.3 °C, respectively, and a nonlinear function for calculating effective thermal sums. Re-emergence of parental beetles occurred at a time when 49.7% of the thermal sum for total development (557 dd) was reached. The model includes the discontinuance of the beetle's reproductive activity at a day length