Machine-Learning Predictions of the Shale Wells’ Performance

Abstract The ultra-low permeability nature of shale reservoirs leads to an extended linear flow and necessitates horizontal wells with multi-stage engineered fractures to efficiently extract hydrocarbons resources. These artificially-generated and naturally-occurring fractures form complex networks that create complex flow regimes which control oil production. These fractures are neither identical nor equally-spaced, which leads to a production profile with a masked onset of the boundary-dominated flow. The combination of the extended linear flow with the indeterminate onset of the boundary-dominated flow challenges the current deterministic analytic approaches to forecast the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Herein, we propose a novel machine-learning approach which overcomes these challenges and provides reliable EUR estimates based on field-wide analyses. We implement a novel unsupervised machine learning (ML) methodology, which allows for automatic identification of the optimal number of features (signals) present in the data based on non-negative matrix/tensor factorization coupled with k-means clustering incorporating regularization and physics constraints. In the presented analyses, the input data to the ML algorithm is the available (public) production history from the field collected at existing unconventional reservoirs. We validate our approach through hindcasting of the production data, where we achieved an excellent agreement. In addition, our approach is able to identify the poorly-performing wells, which could benefit from early refracing. Our approach provides fast and accurate estimations of the well performance without presumptions about the state of the well or the flow regime.