The MAGIC Algorithm Probability (MAP) Is a Validated Response Biomarker of Treatment for Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease

There are no validated biomarkers that measure a patient's response to therapy for acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), the leading cause of non-relapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT). Recent studies from the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) have validated an algorithm probability (MAP) that combines serum concentrations of two biomarkers of GVHD (REG3α and ST2) to generate an estimated probability of 6 month NRM for individual patients. The MAP estimates GVHD-mediated damage to crypts throughout the lower GI tract at single time points (Hartwell et al., JCI Insight, 2017; Major- Monfried et al., Blood, 2018). We hypothesized that the change in MAP between start of treatment and 28 days later could serve as a response biomarker and would compare favorably to clinical response, the gold standard which is widely used as a surrogate for long term survival and is the primary endpoint in most GVHD treatment trials (Martin et al., BBMT, 2009; MacMillan et al., Blood, 2010). We prospectively collected serum samples and clinical staging from 368 sequential HCT patients who received systemic treatment for acute GVHD in one of 20 MAGIC centers between January 2016 and February 2018. We computed MAPs and clinical responses for each patient. MAPs of patients who experienced 6 month NRM increased significantly compared to MAPs of patients who survived (p=0.0004). In patients whose initial MAPs were low (Ann Arbor 1, MAP 0.290), those who survived tended to have the largest decreases in MAP (Fig 1C). We found that patients whose MAPs rose above the previously determined high-risk threshold MAP of 0.290 had significantly worse survival compared to those who remained below it, whereas the large number patients with initially high MAPs that remained above the threshold had a large increase in mortality (Fig 2). When measured at day 28, MAPs predicted NRM more accurately than clinical responses, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.86 and 0.70, respectively (p We conclude that the MAP is, to our knowledge, the first laboratory test validated as a response biomarker for acute GVHD treatment and more accurately predicts survival than clinical response after 28 days of treatment. The MAP may serve as a novel endpoint in future trials of GVHD treatment.