A Two-Tier Scenario Planning Model of Environmental Sustainability Policy in Taiwan

This study proposes a two-tier scenario planning model, consisting of scenario development and policy portfolio planning, to demonstrate the environmental sustainability policy planning process. Scenario development embodies future scenarios that incorporate the uncertainties regarding the decision values and technological alternatives. Policy portfolio planning is used to assess the selected policy alternatives under each scenario and to develop a robust and responsive plan. We organized first- and second-tier committees of 10–12 experts from diverse professional fields to undertake environmental sustainability policy planning in Taiwan. The first-tier committee generated three scenarios: “live at the mercy of the elements”, “industry convergence”, and “technology pilot”. The second-tier committee ensured that, from cradle-to-cradle (C2C), green supply chain management (GSCM), and industry symbiosis (IS), life-cycle type policies enhance green willingness and capabilities in the businesses. This is the first study to consider the first-tier process with scenario development and the second-tier process with policy portfolio planning for environmental sustainability, and contributes by considering intuitive logics approach-based scenarios and robust policies for extant portfolio plans, providing life-cycle- type policy profiles in environmental sustainability.