Analysis and Forecast of a Local Rainstorm Event

Based on the conventional data,automatic weather station data,Doppler radar observational data, and FY-2C TBB data,together with the conceptual model of the mesoscale convective complex motion, the strongest thunderstorm and rainstorm event in North China area on 18 July 2007 has been analyzed. The results show that the local rainstorm is presented the obvious character of a mesoscale convective system which is produced under the large-scale advantageous condition.The strong rainfall occurred at the head of the Lamdba-shaped echo,and the falling area of rainstorm is associated with the meso cyclone. The analyses of automatic weather station data illustrate that the rainfall region and moving direction can be found.In addition,the rainstorm occurred at the right-backside of the MCC and the precipitation intensity is the strongest when the cloud top temperature is the lowest.According to the motion of the meso-βscale element(MBE),it can forecast the next region of the rainstorm which provides a new way for the nowcasting of the local rainstorm.