Model Development of NIÑO 3.4 and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Anomalies Teleconnection

The purpose of this research is to develop the teleconnection model of Nino 3.4 and IOD anomalies which can be used as reference to explain precipitation anomalies. El-Nino and IOD cycles are shown as the warming process of sea surface temperatures where for El-Nino is in the Pacific Ocean and IOD is in the Indian Ocean and each of them forms a cycle over a certain period of time. The method used to determine the dominant oscillation of the teleconnection of Nino 3.4 and IOD anomalies is Power Spectral Density (PSD), and to model the teleconnection of Nino 3.4 and IOD anomalies is ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The data used are Nino 3.4 index which is one type of index for El-Nino and IOD index. The results are Power Spectral Density (PSD) graphs for the teleconnection of Nino 3.4 and IOD anomalies which oscillates around 5 years. By the ARIMA method, the approximate model for the data of teleconnection of Nino 3.4 and IOD is ARIMA (1,1,2) with equation of Z t = 1.516  Z t-1 - 0.516 Z t-2 - 0.256 a t-1 + 0.021 a t-2 .