Dispersal in heterogeneous environments drives population dynamics and control of tsetse flies.
2021
Spatio-temporally heterogeneous environments may lead to unexpected
population dynamics. Knowledge is needed on local properties favouring
population resilience at large scale. For pathogen vectors, such as tsetse
flies transmitting human and animal African trypanosomosis, this is crucial
to target management strategies. We developed a mechanistic spatio-temporal
model of the age-structured population dynamics of tsetse flies,
parametrized with field and laboratory data. It accounts for density- and
temperature-dependence. The studied environment is heterogeneous, fragmented
and dispersal is suitability-driven. We confirmed that temperature
and adult mortality have a strong impact on tsetse populations. When
homogeneously increasing adult mortality, control was less effective and
induced faster population recovery in the coldest and temperature-stable
locations, creating refuges. To optimally select locations to control, we
assessed the potential impact of treating them and their contribution to
the whole population. This heterogeneous control induced a similar population
decrease, with more dispersed individuals. Control efficacy was no
longer related to temperature. Dispersal was responsible for refuges at the
interface between controlled and uncontrolled zones, where resurgence
after control was very high. The early identification of refuges, which
could jeopardize control efforts, is crucial. We recommend baseline data
collection to characterize the ecosystem before implementing any measures.
Keywords:
- Correction
- Source
- Cite
- Save
- Machine Reading By IdeaReader
61
References
0
Citations
NaN
KQI