Forecasting the deployment of short-rotation intensive culture of willow or hybrid poplar: Insights from a Delphi study

Short-rotation intensive culture (SRIC) of willow (Salix spp.) or hybrid poplar (Populus spp.) is currently at a precommercial stage with a potential to be applied economically across important areas to produce lignocellulosic biomass and environmental services in Canada. A two-round Delphi survey was conducted among 50 experts to assess the future deployment of SRIC in this country. The total area in 10 years (2011 base year) was forecasted as 1330, 4100, and 11 400 ha under pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic scenarios, respectively. The deployment of SRIC in the next decade depends mainly on the development of the demand for SRIC biomass and services, that of production technologies, and the establishment of policies and programs promoting its application. In the short term, research and development (R&D) and policy initiatives should be funded or implemented by various stakeholders to facilitate the deployment of the system. On average, respondents deemed that the potential for long-term (20 years)...