Association between Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Incidence and Ambient Temperature

Abstract. Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is emerging in China. To explore the lagged effects and nonlinear association between temperature and SFTS, we collected data on ambient temperature and SFTS cases and analyzed the data using a distributed lag nonlinear model. A total of 1,933 SFTS cases were reported in the study area from 2011 to 2015. Our study revealed a nonlinear relationship between weekly temperature and SFTS. The exposure–response curve was an approximately reversed U-shaped peak at 23°C. High temperatures had acute and short-term effects, whereas low temperatures had persistent and long-term effects. The effects of lower temperatures (1.62°C and 6.97°C) could last 24 weeks, but the effect of 29.30°C was not significant at lag 8 weeks. Our results provide information to better understand the effect of temperature variation on SFTS and may have policy implications for disease prevention and control.